Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Hybrid strategies

The three strategies we have already covered are the three basic strategies for multi-step forecasting, each with its own merits and demerits. Over the years, researchers have tried to combine these into hybrid strategies that try to capture the good parts of all these strategies. Let’s go through a few of them here. This will not be a comprehensive list because there is none. Anyone with enough creativity can come up with alternate strategies, but we will just cover a few that have received some attention and deep study from the forecasting community.

DirRec Strategy

As the name suggests, the DirRec strategy is the combination of direct and recursive strategies for multi-step forecasting. First, let’s look at the following diagram:

Figure 17.5 – DirRec strategy for multi-step forecasting

Now, let’s see how these regimes work for the DirRec strategy.

Training regime

Similar to the direct strategy, the...