Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

What is attention?

The idea of attention was inspired by human cognitive function. At any moment, the optic nerves in our eyes, the olfactory nerves in our noses, and the auditory nerves in our ears send a massive amount of sensory input to the brain. This is way too much information, definitely more than the brain can handle. But our brains have developed a mechanism that helps us to pay attention to only the stimuli that matter—such as a sound or a smell that doesn’t belong. Years of evolution have trained our brains to pick out anomalous sounds or smells because that was key for us surviving in the wild where predators roamed free.

Apart from this kind of instinctive attention, we are also able to control our attention by what we call focusing on something. You are doing it right now by choosing to ignore all the other stimuli that you are getting and focusing your attention on the contents of this book. While you are reading, your mobile phone pings you, and the...