Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Summary

We have been storming through the world of DL in the last few chapters. We started off with the basic premise of DL, what it is, and why it became so popular. Then, we saw a few common building blocks that are typically used in time series forecasting and got our hands dirty, learning how we can put what we have learned into practice using PyTorch. Although we talked about RNNs, LSTMs, GRUs, and so on, we purposefully left out attention and Transformers because they deserved a separate chapter.

We started the chapter by learning about the generalized attention model, helping you put a framework around all the different schemes of attention out there, and then went into detail on a few common attention schemes, such as scaled dot product, additive, and general attention. Right after incorporating attention into the Seq2Seq models we were playing with in Chapter 12, Building Blocks of Deep Learning for Time Series, we started with the Transformer. We went into detail on all...