Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Summary

And with this, we have come to the end of Section 1, Getting Familiar with Time Series. We have come a long way from just understanding what a time series is to generating competitive baseline forecasts. Along the way, we learned how to handle missing values and outliers and how to manipulate time series data using pandas. We used all those skills on a real-world dataset regarding energy consumption. We also looked at ways to visualize and decompose time series. In this chapter, we set up a test harness, learned how to use the darts library to generate a baseline forecast, and looked at a few metrics that can be used to understand the forecastability of a time series. For some of you, this may be a refresher, and we hope this chapter added some value in terms of some subtleties and practical considerations. For the rest of you, we hope you are in a good place, foundationally, to start venturing into modern techniques using machine learning in the next section of the book.

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