Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Convolution networks

Convolution networks, also called convolutional neural networks (CNNs), are like neural networks for processing data in the form of a grid. This grid can be 2D, such as an image, 1D, such as a time series, 3D, such as data from LIDAR sensors, and so on. The basic idea behind CNNs is inspired by how human vision works. In 1979, Fukushima proposed Neocognitron. It was a one-of-a-kind architecture that was directly inspired by how human vision works. But CNNs came into existence as we know them today in 1989 when Yann LeCun used backpropagation to learn such a network and proved it by getting state-of-the-art results in handwritten digit recognition. In 2012, when AlexNet (a CNN architecture for image recognition) won the annual challenge of image recognition called ImageNet, that too by a large margin between it and competing non-deep learning approaches, the interest and research in CNNs peaked. People soon figured out that, apart from images, CNNs are effective...