Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Why Global Forecasting Models (GFMs)?

We talked about global models briefly in Chapter 5, Time Series Forecasting as Regression, where we mentioned related datasets. We can think of many scenarios where we would encounter related time series. We may need to forecast the sales for all the products of a retailer, the number of rides requested for a cab service across different areas of a city, or the energy consumption of all the households in a particular area (which is what the London Smart Meters dataset does). We call these related time series because all the different time series in the dataset can have a lot of factors in common with each other. For instance, the yearly seasonality that might occur in retail products might be present for a large section of products, or the way an external factor such as temperature affects energy consumption may be similar for a large number of households. Therefore, one way or the other, the different time series in a related time series dataset...