Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Detecting and correcting for heteroscedasticity

Despite having a scary name, heteroscedasticity is a simple enough concept. It is derived from ancient Greek, where hetero means different and skedasis means dispersion. True to its name, heteroscedasticity is defined when the variability of a variable is different across another variable. In the context of a time series, we say a time series is heteroscedastic when the variability or dispersion of the time series varies with time. For instance, let’s think about the spending of a household through the years. In these years, this particular household went from being poor to middle class and finally upper middle class. When the household was poor, the spending was less and only on essentials, and because of that, the variability in spending was less. But as they approached upper middle class, the household could afford luxuries, which created spikes in the time series and therefore higher variability. If we refer back to Figure...