Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting as Regression

In the previous part of the book, we have developed a fundamental understanding of time series and equipped ourselves with tools and techniques to analyze and visualize time series and even generate our first baseline forecasts. We have mainly covered classical and statistical techniques in this book so far. Let’s now dip our toes into modern machine learning and learn how we can leverage this comparatively newer field for time series forecasting. Machine learning is a field that has grown in leaps and bounds in recent times, and being able to leverage these newer techniques for time series forecasting is a skill that will be invaluable in today’s world.

In this chapter, we will be covering these main topics:

  • Understanding the basics of machine learning
  • Time series forecasting as regression
  • Local versus global models