Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Analyzing and Visualizing Time Series Data

In the previous chapter, we learned where to obtain time series datasets, as well as how to manipulate time series data using pandas, handle missing values, and so on. Now that we have the processed time series data, it’s time to understand the dataset, which data scientists call Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA). It is a process by which the data scientist analyzes the data by looking at aggregate statistics, feature distributions, visualizations, and so on to try and uncover patterns in the data that they can leverage in modeling. In this chapter, we will look at a couple of ways to analyze a time series dataset, a few specific techniques that are tailor-made for time series, and review some of the visualization techniques for time series data.

In this chapter, we will cover the following topics:

  • Components of a time series
  • Visualizing time series data
  • Decomposing a time series
  • Detecting and treating outliers...