Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Multi-Step Forecasting

In the previous parts, we covered some basics of forecasting and different types of modeling techniques for time series forecasting. But a complete forecasting system is not just the model. There are a few mechanics of time series forecasting that make a lot of difference. These topics cannot be called basics because they require a nuanced understanding of the forecasting paradigm, and that is why we didn’t cover these upfront.

Now that you have worked on some forecasting models and are familiar with time series, it’s time to get more nuanced in our approach. Most of the forecasting exercises we have done throughout the book focus on forecasting the next timestep.

In this chapter, we will look at strategies to generate multi-step forecasting. In other words, how to forecast the next timesteps.

In this chapter, we will be covering these main topics:

  • Why multi-step forecasting?
  • Recursive strategy
  • Direct strategy
  • Joint...