Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Target Transformations for Time Series Forecasting

In the previous chapter, we delved into how we can do temporal embedding and time delay embedding by making use of feature engineering techniques. But that was just one side of the regression equation – the features. Often, we see that the other side of the equation – the target – does not behave the way we want. In other words, the target doesn’t have some desirable properties that make forecasting easier. One of the major culprits in this area is stationarity – or more specifically, the lack of it. And it creates problems with the assumptions we make while developing a machine learning (ML)/statistical model. In this chapter, we will look at some techniques for handling such problems with the target.

In this chapter, we will cover the following topics:

  • Handling non-stationarity in time series
  • Detecting and correcting for unit roots
  • Detecting and correcting for trends
  • Detecting...