Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

By : Manu Joseph
5 (1)
Book Image

Modern Time Series Forecasting with Python

5 (1)
By: Manu Joseph

Overview of this book

We live in a serendipitous era where the explosion in the quantum of data collected and a renewed interest in data-driven techniques such as machine learning (ML), has changed the landscape of analytics, and with it, time series forecasting. This book, filled with industry-tested tips and tricks, takes you beyond commonly used classical statistical methods such as ARIMA and introduces to you the latest techniques from the world of ML. This is a comprehensive guide to analyzing, visualizing, and creating state-of-the-art forecasting systems, complete with common topics such as ML and deep learning (DL) as well as rarely touched-upon topics such as global forecasting models, cross-validation strategies, and forecast metrics. You’ll begin by exploring the basics of data handling, data visualization, and classical statistical methods before moving on to ML and DL models for time series forecasting. This book takes you on a hands-on journey in which you’ll develop state-of-the-art ML (linear regression to gradient-boosted trees) and DL (feed-forward neural networks, LSTMs, and transformers) models on a real-world dataset along with exploring practical topics such as interpretability. By the end of this book, you’ll be able to build world-class time series forecasting systems and tackle problems in the real world.
Table of Contents (26 chapters)
1
Part 1 – Getting Familiar with Time Series
6
Part 2 – Machine Learning for Time Series
13
Part 3 – Deep Learning for Time Series
20
Part 4 – Mechanics of Forecasting

Strategies for Global Deep Learning Forecasting Models

All through the last few chapters, we have been building up deep learning for time series forecasting. We started with the basics of deep learning, saw the different building blocks, practically used some of those building blocks to generate forecasts on a sample household, and finally, talked about attention and transformers. Now, let’s slightly alter our trajectory and take a look at global models for deep learning. In Chapter 10, Global Forecasting Models, we saw why global models make sense and also saw how we can use such a model in the machine learning context. We even got good results in our experiments. In this chapter, we will look at how we can apply similar concepts, but from a deep learning context. We will look at different strategies that we can use to make global deep learning models work better.

In this chapter, we will be covering these main topics:

  • Creating global deep learning forecasting models...